Posts Tagged ‘economics’
Tighten your seat belts. Good overview of next installment of the financial crisis
Posted April 15, 2010
on:I am optimistic but
attend to the facts
I think we live in oddly optimistic times, but only if we attend to the facts. Financial facts can be hard to come by and its very difficult to find the whole picture laid out in one place.
The Huff has a summary of the financial crisis in April 2010
- our total national debt as you and I understand it – what we owe not just what the government owes
- how much is underpinned by China
- what China wants done and what IMF is doing RIGHT NOW
The Huff’s general message is tighten your seat belts. The critical ideas seem to be
- Debt repayments due in April 2010
- Chinese/IMF proposal to introduce SDR’s – in short an international reserve currency which allows countries with surpluses to hedge their bets across countries looking for bailouts (us)
- Where (and to whom) our money has gone (we really should get back what is left)
- A crisis due in the next month or so (hang on to your seats)
We can afford what we create
Posted March 21, 2010
on:The golden rule of economics and politics
It is all that we need to know really. We can afford what we create.
Our plan of work tells us what we can afford
And from the golden rule ~ we can afford what we create ~ we have two other rules.
It is better to work with others than alone
None of us can create everything we want, or need, to afford. It matters that we belong to a bigger group or tribe.
The collective to which we belong tells us what we can afford. Our family, our company, and yes, the country, the sovereign state to which we belong, define what we create and our lifestyle.
When I am writing, someone is creating the electricity that powers this laptop. While another person is making my washing machine (running in the background), I am looking for easy-to-understand writing on our economy that cuts through the obfuscation delivered by politicians.
The system matters. Our place in it also matters. But the whole, the collective, is what we must keep our eye on. Where we draw the boundary matters. Because we can afford what we can create. Who is we. Between us, we create what we can afford.
Draw a circle around who we trust, and who lives and breathes because we live and breathe, and we have defined what we create and what we can afford.
If that circle is too small to define the lifestyle we want, there is our first task. Widen the circle. Widen the magic circle of trust.
We need leaders who instinctively read that circle and work with our neighbors, suppliers and customers to widen our system.
Tell me what you are going to do. Economics will follow.
The second rule that follows the golden rule is that value comes first. We can check the economics afterward.
The clear writing economist, Ann Pettifor, makes this point well.
The central bank in each country should set the money supply to match the economic capacity of a country.
She doesn’t like using a household or small company as an example. So let’s use a giant multinational.
When a giant company needs something done, and they are pretty certain it will work out, they put up the budget and let the managers and workers get on with it. Money comes first in time. But profits, and worrying about profits comes last. Paying back the investors comes last. We will recover our money provided we only put up the amount of money that the work was worth.
But we will never make money unless we have the money to bring a team together and get going.
The skill in managing, and financing, a major investment is understanding what venture is worth.
Before you tell me that business does not work like that. It does. Don’t confuse where you work with successful companies and successful public service. I’ve consulted to them. I’ve led in them.
I have two rules:
- What do you want to do?
- After you’ve told me, we’ll run the numbers to make sure it is economically viable. If not, we go back to question 1. What do you want to do? We begin with the value. We begin with what you want to create. Economics follows. If you want to do it, we will back it.
We can afford what we can create
These are our questions.
What can we create?
Who do we create it with?
What is our potential that we are not using?
To find our potential: ask people. What do you want to do? When that is on the table, we’ll run the numbers. If the numbers hold together, we back their plans.
The golden rule and Britain’s government deficit
Ann Pettifor puts this story in the context of Britain’s government deficit(which is large but not nearly as big as the bank bailouts). She is standing for parliament but don’t let that dissuade you. She writes clearly. That alone is a good reason for electing her.
The collective, Britain, defined by the reach of the Bank of England and the reach of the pound sterling, has potential. Fund it. A simple message. Fund what we can create.
The only question that I ask, and I’ll go to her blog now to ask the question, is how quickly will we recover the money? I think I would like to see the numbers run by month, quarter and year. Then I would feel more comfortable.
Then my trust would increase Then the collective strengthens.
Sometimes economists (and lawyers and accountants) forget that everything they do depends upon us believing it. Yes, the outer boundary is the reach of the pound sterling. The real boundary is our belief in each other. Some people call this belief ‘confidence’ but that is the wrong measure.
Confidence is self-efficacy. The correct measures is collective self-efficacy. The question for that is “Do I believe that you will do better economically this year?” When we answer yes to that question, then we will boom.
But first the question of timing. I must ask Ann that.
For now I am thankful for finding that quotation. Simple. Pithy. We can afford what we create.
Followed by my two rules.
- People matter. Who is we.
- We’ll check the economics after we have decided what we want to do.
P.S. I googled “we can afford what we create” and I didn’t find any other reference to it. Did Ann coin this phrase or is it a well known economic expression?
Are we done ‘bargaining’ about the financial crisis? I wish, but I don’t think so.
Posted December 14, 2009
on:Denial, anger, bargaining, depression, action & the financial crisis
This time last year we were definitely in the first of the five stages of grief. Denial: we couldn’t quite believe that the bankers had blown a hole below our a waterline.
A year later, economists at least, have moved on.
The Governor of the Bank of England said
“The sheer scale of support to the banking sector is breathtaking. In the UK, in
the form of direct or guaranteed loans and equity investment, it is not far
short of a trillion (that is, one thousand billion) pounds, close to two-thirds of
the annual output of the entire economy.
To paraphrase a great wartime leader, never in the field of financial
endeavour has so much money been owed by so few to so many. And, one
might add, so far with little real reform.” (Governor of the Bank of England,
in a speech, 20 October, 2009. )
Yes. One trillion pounds sterling, 66% of the UK’s annual GDP of 1,4 trillion pounds has been put aside to mend the hole, lest it sinks the entire ship of state.
I don’t think the man and woman in the street quite grasps the size of the hole. If they did, they would have stormed the life-boats.
Professional economist are beginning to look at alternatives
The economists are beginning to debate seriously though.
Do we cut back hard to pay down our national debt – for which you and I must read – government debt? Should the government stop spending like we might when we’ve just had an overseas holiday and put too much on the credit card? Cut out all the luxuries till we have paid off our excesses?
Or do we need Keynesian economics to get out of this? That is, should we spend money from the center to create a ripple effect? For example, should the government spends 100 pounds on a new school, who pays the builder who pays the suppliers and who pays their suppliers who pay the supermarkets and who ultimately pays me. All of us take part and we all pay tax and don’t claim benefits?
Ann Pettifor’s talk on Keynesian economics is 20 pages long. If you are not an economist, put aside a couple of hours to get through it. It is worth the time. First, it is clearly written. You will understand the issues. Second, it is well written. It is nice to know that someone in England can still write a great speech (though she appears to live and work out of the States now).
Where are economists on the grief cycle?
So the economists are beginning to look at the facts. What stage of grief are they in? We need to know this so that we have a sense of how long the dilly-dallying will go on.
- None are really proposing action. The actions of others, yes, but not their own. But they are along the track. I would say the independent economists are around the bargaining stage – if we do this, it will be alright!
- The Governor of the Bank of England, though admirably witty, seems to be further along around the depression stage. I do hate writing that. It feels like tempting fate. It’s relevance is this. It’s important to have a sense of when we will move collectively out of the state of shock and deliberation. And it is important for younger psychologists reading this to store away a sense of how long community’s take to recover psychologically from extreme shocks so they are better able to lead when shocks happen in the future as they surely will.
We are gathering ourselves for action
We are still waiting for the leaders whose plans are not contingent. We are still waiting for the leaders who say this is what I am going to do. This is what I am wholly committed to doing ~ so much so that I don’t have to say I am committed. You see it in my eyes. You see it in my focused attention. You see it in my invitation to join me.
We have a way to go.
Little known secrets about what a work and organizational psychologist will do for you in a recession
Posted March 24, 2009
on:My job is to help you find forward momentum
I’m a psychologist. What this means, in short, is that you come to see me when you feel frustrated and it is my job to help you find a way forward.
Clinical psychology, social workers, lawyers & doctors
For some people getting out of a bad situation is complicated. Quite often they are in extremely difficult circumstances and they need social workers, doctors, lawyers, etc. to help them solve practical problems.
They may also have lived in difficult circumstances for so long that they no longer recognize easy circumstances. Helping them unravel their view of life and live an easier life is the work of clinical psychologists.
Work & organizational psychologists
Most people who come to see me are not in a bad situation. They are at one of the normal turning points in life where they have to make a decision and they do not have sufficient information. These turning points are often frustrating and scary, but they are essentially about questions like which organization should I join? Or, how do I improve my status and my income? Psychologists like me work less like clinical psychologists, who work with what is in your head, more like social workers, doctors and lawyers. We help you understand and manage the external world, and in particular the world of organizations and work.
Indeed, we are quite often work for organizations rather than individuals and when we do, we are architects of systems. We design selection systems. We design disciplinary codes. We design bonus systems. HR systems are just formalized ways of making a lot of personal decisions about what we are doing and where we are going. When we design the systems well, we give people an easy framework to make their own decisions well. And we also strengthen the organization, by providing a place where we live and work comfortably and easily.
Work & organizational psychologists ask a lot of questions about work & business
To design good systems, we need to know a lot about jobs and business. Of course, we don’t know as much as the people who run the business and who have worked in it all their lives. Businesses and technologies change fast too. So we are less in the business of knowing, and more in the business of asking questions.
Learning about the financial crisis
I started writing this post this morning after I read a post from the redoubtable Alice Cook, who provides a graph showing that financial debt has grown disproportionately to consumer and corporate debt in the UK. I knew that generally but didn’t have a graph at my finger tips. So thank you. I like to have data stored away neatly.
Personal action during the financial crisis
I am amazed, though, that anyone is amazed by these figures. Like many people, I feel that the managerial classes in the UK have a lot to answer for. They should have known these figures intimately and acted accordingly.
The trouble is that blaming others is pretty useless as a psychological technique. Professionals & business leaders may be to blame. We might be right to hold them in contempt. And personally, I wouldn’t feel unhappy if they were prosecuted. But blaming others doesn’t help us feel better, and more importantly, it doesn’t help use get things right. So I’ll leave that to others.
As a psychologist, what I have to say is this.
Until we are all a lot better informed, we will simply lurch from one crisis to another
Listed below are the bare bones of an information system that I am used to having at my disposal.
- Trends in our industry
- Current economic figures supplied monthly by our bank
- People around me who read the figures
- Key figures pertaining to our industry
- Data on databases so that computer savvy people (including youngsters) can play with data and ask questions
- Key figures that show the strength and resilience of our business
- Key figures readily available so computer savvy people can play with them and ask questions
It is true I have not seen this information being made freely available to employees since I have arrived in the UK but I’ve lived elsewhere where a key player in the provision of information to people in business has been, ironically, British-listed banks.
If we want to get out of the biggest mess since the great Depression, we are going to have to do something. And to do something, we have to begin. The first steps I will tell you, being a psychologist, is to ask questions.
Some easy no-cost first steps that individuals and small business owners should take
You have a computer and internet? So let’s go. If you haven’t already done it, it’s time to set up your own economic intelligence system.
FIVE steps will do it. Set up folders on your email, feeds reader, bookmarkers and hard drive, and a page on your blog.
1. Google Alerts. Set up Google Alerts for your industry.
I have alerts for UK jobs and UK GDP and use a ‘rule’ to send them straight to my “intelligence” folder in email. I read them once a week or when I need a break from other tasks.
2. As you find useful blogs, subscribe in your feeds reader.
I scan these at my leisure and make a point of reading The Economist on Thursday evenings.
3. Bookmark articles you might want to come back to.
One big folder works better than many little ones. Bookmarks saves you Google-time when you want to re-call something.
4. Save useful graphs, data and pictures on your hard drive for the presentation you will make later!
5. Blog from time to time to organize your thoughts.
Then make an index of useful posts on a separate page where your readers can find all your writings on the future of your industry and local economy.
So will being economically-savvy help?
Keeping an eye on the economy does not stop other people from being foolish, of course. And it can also make you feel panicky when you see a trend that no one else seems to care about.
I find that understanding the economy is like knowing the motorway ahead is congested. I have created choice for myself. I can keep driving and join the throngs inching along and losing their tempers. Or I can pull off, and take a longer route through the back roads.
Neither may be a great outcome and it is also possible to put far too much effort into deciding the best alternative. But I prefer a leisurely drive down the back roads enjoying the country view than boiling with frustration on an ugly motorway.
And I quite happy to leave behind badly run organizations for a business venture that is smaller and more likely to be here tomorrow.
Follow the good money
If you haven’t already done so, begin. Spend a few hours a week following the economic data. It gets easier.
And if we all do it, we won’t be routed by unscrupulous managers, at least for a while.
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